The Influence of Climate Variability on the Cirullus Lanatus (Watermelon) Production in Zanzibar
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Date
2022-12-10
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Abstract
Climate change and variability, which significantly reduce agricultural yields, has led Zanzibari societies to rely on horticulture (watermelon production) as an adaptive measure. Currently, there is either no or scant information that describes climate change and the influence and variability of watermelon production in Zanzibar. Thus, this study aimed to determine the influence of climate variability on the quantity of watermelon production in Zanzibar. The study used two types of data, which included primary and secondary data. The first was the anecdotal information collected from interviewers‘ responses for four districts of Unguja and Pemba, while the latter was climate parameters consisting of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA). Pearson correlation was used to find the association between watermelon production and climate parameters,
while paired t-test was applied to show the significance of the mean difference between both watermelon and climate parameters for the two periods of 2014-2017 and 2018- 2021. Percentage changes were used to show the extent to which the two affect each other. Also, anecdotal responses were sorted (using excel sheets), calculated into monthly and seasonal averages, plotted, and then analyzed. The results have shown a strong correlation ( and ) between watermelon production, Tmax and rainfall during OND, especially at Kaskazini B and Kusini (Unguja) as well as Tmin during JJA (i.e. ) at Chake Chake (Pemba). Moreover, results have shown that there exists a significant difference between the mean watermelon production and climate parameter for the two stated periods, indicating that the climate parameter highly influences the watermelon production in Zanzibar, leading to an enhancement/decline of watermelon production by the range of 69 -162% and 17 - 77%, respectively. Further results have shown that anecdotal responses have agreed that the excess temperature intensity during dry periods can lead to a high production cost due to a number of soil and environmental factors (e.g., to low fertility, stunting, and
perishable of crops). The study concludes that climate variability has significant influence to watermelon production in Zanzibar during OND (for rainfall and Tmax) in Unguja and during JJA (Tmin) in Pemba. The study recommends climate-based decision making as well as routine monitoring of weather information. Also, more studies about factors affecting watermelon production such as soil characteristics, pest side and manure should be conducted
Description
Climate change and variability, which significantly reduce agricultural yields, has led Zanzibari societies to rely on horticulture (watermelon production) as an adaptive measure. Currently, there is either no or scant information that describes climate change and the influence and variability of watermelon production in Zanzibar. Thus, this study aimed to determine the influence of climate variability on the quantity of watermelon production in Zanzibar